Here's How Bad This Tornado Season Will Be (2023)

Introduction

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In this video we are talking about how there could be over one thousand tornadoes in the USA this year.

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Video

Last year, 1,146 tornadoes touched down in the US, causing half a billion dollars in damage.

But.

It can get much worse than that.

In 2004, nearly 2,000 tornadoes ripped across the country, doubling the yearly average.

But in 2013.

Only around 900 tornadoes, occurred.

What made 2004 so much more active than 2013? And.

Could it happen again, this year? Well,? Let's take a closer look at 2004, which featured a record-breaking 1,817 tornadoes.

There were 3 tornadoes in January, 9 in February, and over 100 in April, but look at September.

Almost 300 tornadoes occurred during this month, setting the all-time record.

What happened: here? Hurricanes?, Hurricanes, happened.

Yeah! There were three huge tornado outbreaks in September as a result of landfalling hurricanes.

On September 8, Hurricane Francis set the record for the highest number of tornadoes spawned by a single hurricane ever.

And.

Then, just ten days, later, Hurricane Ivan smashed that record by producing a whopping 120 tornadoes.

And, finally, Hurricane Jeanne came through and whipped up an additional 42 tornadoes to end out the month.

But, the crazy part, is, September wasn't even the most active month of 2004.

In May.

There were 509 tornadoes., Between, May, 21st and 31st, several rounds of vicious supercell thunderstorms produced 389 tornadoes, resulting in almost $70 million in damage.

Clearly.

The reason 2004 was so intense is because of these big tornado, outbreaks.

And.

The same can be said for most other years, where we saw more tornadoes than average.

For example, in 2011, there were 1,705 confirmed, tornadoes.

773 of them occurred in the month of April.

This was thanks to several tornado outbreaks, but most notably the 2011 Super Outbreak, which spawned 360 tornadoes in just three days, causing $10 billion in damage and killing 324 people.

So.

In order to figure out how many tornadoes we're going to see this year, we need to figure out how many big tornado outbreaks there's going to be.

The problem.

Is, big tornado outbreaks are hard to predict even just a week in advance, let alone several weeks or months.

“Basically.

We have no clue how many outbreaks are actually going to happen.

This year.” What we do know is that, in order for there to be tornado outbreaks at all, we need storms., Tropical, cyclones, cold fronts, big low pressure, systems.

It.

All comes down to how many of those we get and where they happen.

So.

We just need to look into the future, which sounds hard, but it's actually pretty easy.

We can get a pretty good idea of what future storms are going to do in the US by looking at the temperature of the water in the Pacific, Ocean.

It might sound far-fetched, but this body of water is so huge that the fluctuation of its temperature actually has a profound effect on the weather, worldwide.

For, the past three years, it's been cooler than usual.

This is known as La Nina, and here in the US, La Nina leads to a much stronger northern branch of the jet stream.

That typically increases the likelihood of severe weather and tornadoes in the Midwest and the Great.

Plains.

We saw this in action during the historic tornado outbreaks of 2021, where places like Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota saw record-breaking tornadoes.

But as we go farther into 2023.

The water in the Pacific Ocean is going to get warmer and warmer.

This means we're going to exit La, Nina and head towards what is known as El Nino, and usually El Nino amplifies the southern branch of the jet stream, and it increases the chances of severe weather in the south.

But.

This giant Pacific bathtub ain't going to heat up overnight.

It's, going to take several months for these abnormally cool waters in the Pacific to reach above average status.

In fact, between February and June of this year, we're going to be in a transitional period, or a neutral phase somewhere between El Nino and La Nina.

So.

What in the heck does this mean? In my opinion,? It means that slowly, but surely we're going to see that strong, northerly jet start to wind down and dip a little bit farther south.

More often.

This is probably going to lead to a lull or a late start and severe weather season for the Ohio Valley and East Coast.

Due to some lingering cold air and potential snowstorms.

And as the water in the Pacific Ocean keeps on heating.

Up, I think we're going to see increasing storm activity along the southern branch of the jet stream.

But.

It won't be very frequent at first.

Essentially, things are going to be pretty sporadic.

I mean, it's going to be nuts out there.

There's, going to be a wild mixture of activity between the northern and southern jetstreams, leading to potential severe weather from the Deep South, all the way up into the Upper Midwest, not to mention the big temperature swings that are going to come along with this.

It's, going to get very cold out there, but also very hot.

I got to tell you.

This setup reminds me a lot of the year 2012.

In 2012.

We were exiting a La Nina pattern towards the beginning of the year, and we had reached a neutral phase throughout most of the spring and summer.

And.

Like.

That's exactly what's happening.

This year.

Another similarity is that 2012 started off strong with 97 tornadoes in January, and in January of this year, we had 125, which was the third highest for January ever.

Also.

As we approached hurricane season in 2012, we started getting closer to El.

Nino.

This resulted in a below average hurricane season, leading to less than 5% of the year's tornadoes being caused by tropical cyclones.

And from what I'm seeing, it looks like something similar is in store for 2023.

Overall, 2012 saw fewer tornadoes than average, with only 939 being confirmed over the course of the whole year.

I tend to think that the similarities between 2012 and this year are going to continue, and that will ultimately lead us to another below average year.

Somewhere between 900 and 1,100 tornadoes will have occurred by the end of 2023.

And.

Simply by following the climatology, we can infer where the highest concentration of these tornadoes will occur as we go through the year.

As usual, we're going to see the Central Plains and Deep South light up in the spring.

Then the Northern Plains and Midwest in the summer.

And of course, we're going to see that southern migration as we go into fall and winter.

But because of that potential, late season, cold air hanging around the East Coast and the fact that we're heading towards an El Nino pattern by the end of summer, I think the Southern Plains are going to be the hot spot this year in terms of severe weather.

This is good news if you're someone in the Southeast who's, tired of being the center of attention on this channel, or if you're, a storm, chaser.

But, here's the thing.

All of this is very uncertain.

And.

Despite your confidence in my forecasting, it's important.

You understand that this is still going to be a very dangerous year.

The total number of tornadoes during any given year has little to do with the impact tornadoes have on communities and individuals.

One of the most memorable tornado outbreaks of my lifetime happened in March of 2012, which is the very below average year that we keep referring.

To.

Also, 2013 featured the least amount of tornadoes since 1989.

But guess: what? On, May 31, 2013, the biggest tornado ever happened in El Reno, Oklahoma.

And, just a few days before that, on May 20, one of the strongest tornadoes in recent memory struck, Moore, Oklahoma, producing EF-5 damage.

And.

We haven't seen an EF-5 tornado since, despite having several years with many more tornadoes, touching down.

So, even though I think we're going to see less tornadoes than usual.

This year, we're still going to see tornado outbreaks.

And unfortunately.

They will bring about widespread damage and destruction.

Just think about it for a second.

Even.

If there was only one tornado for the rest of this year.

If that bad boy decided to come down your street, it's going to be a life-changing event for you.

But remember, don't be scared., Be, prepared.

If.

You have storm anxiety or, if you just want to take the next step towards being prepared for this upcoming severe weather, season.

First of all, subscribe to this channel.

Second, get yourself a NOAA, Weather Radio.

You know how you have a smoke detector and a carbon monoxide detector.

In your house? Well, this is like a tornado or severe weather, detector.

Even when the power's out or the internet's out or you're trying to sleep.

This thing is going to wake you up.

If there's a tornado warning in your area.

It'll, even do flash flood and other severe weather warnings.

If you want it, to.

I always recommend these things, and I actually can't believe that they're not required to be a part of your house.

Just like a smoke detector or a carbon monoxide, detector.

But, good news, you can get one at Target or Walmart or Walgreens.

Or.

You can click the link in the description right now and get one from me.

That would be very cool of you.

And very soon it will arrive, and you will no longer be scared, but rather be prepared for this upcoming severe weather, season.

Thank you for watching my video.

Huge, shout out to my members.

And, of course.

Please subscribe to this channel, because, when severe weather strikes, we're going live here on this channel for 10, 12 hours, straight, whatever it takes.

So, make sure you're there for that.

Goodbye!.