Get a NOAA weather radio here: shopryanhall.com/prepared
In this video we are talking about how there could be over one thousand tornadoes in the USA this year.
#weatherchannel #ryanhall #ryanhallyall
OFFICIAL WEATHER MERCH: shopryanhall.com/
Join this channel to get access to exclusive perks:
Check out the StormSeekers discord server!
Follow me on these things:
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: ryanhallyall.com/
BUSINESS INQUIRIES: email@example.com
Send us something in the mail!
PO Box 2668
Pikeville, KY 41501
Please refer to your local National Weather Service office to get the most reliable and up to date weather information as possible.
Last year, 1,146 tornadoes touched down in the US, causing half a billion dollars in damage.
It can get much worse than that.
In 2004, nearly 2,000 tornadoes ripped across the country, doubling the yearly average.
But in 2013.
Only around 900 tornadoes, occurred.
What made 2004 so much more active than 2013? And.
Could it happen again, this year? Well,? Let's take a closer look at 2004, which featured a record-breaking 1,817 tornadoes.
There were 3 tornadoes in January, 9 in February, and over 100 in April, but look at September.
Almost 300 tornadoes occurred during this month, setting the all-time record.
What happened: here? Hurricanes?, Hurricanes, happened.
Yeah! There were three huge tornado outbreaks in September as a result of landfalling hurricanes.
On September 8, Hurricane Francis set the record for the highest number of tornadoes spawned by a single hurricane ever.
Then, just ten days, later, Hurricane Ivan smashed that record by producing a whopping 120 tornadoes.
And, finally, Hurricane Jeanne came through and whipped up an additional 42 tornadoes to end out the month.
But, the crazy part, is, September wasn't even the most active month of 2004.
There were 509 tornadoes., Between, May, 21st and 31st, several rounds of vicious supercell thunderstorms produced 389 tornadoes, resulting in almost $70 million in damage.
The reason 2004 was so intense is because of these big tornado, outbreaks.
The same can be said for most other years, where we saw more tornadoes than average.
For example, in 2011, there were 1,705 confirmed, tornadoes.
773 of them occurred in the month of April.
This was thanks to several tornado outbreaks, but most notably the 2011 Super Outbreak, which spawned 360 tornadoes in just three days, causing $10 billion in damage and killing 324 people.
In order to figure out how many tornadoes we're going to see this year, we need to figure out how many big tornado outbreaks there's going to be.
Is, big tornado outbreaks are hard to predict even just a week in advance, let alone several weeks or months.
We have no clue how many outbreaks are actually going to happen.
This year.” What we do know is that, in order for there to be tornado outbreaks at all, we need storms., Tropical, cyclones, cold fronts, big low pressure, systems.
All comes down to how many of those we get and where they happen.
We just need to look into the future, which sounds hard, but it's actually pretty easy.
We can get a pretty good idea of what future storms are going to do in the US by looking at the temperature of the water in the Pacific, Ocean.
It might sound far-fetched, but this body of water is so huge that the fluctuation of its temperature actually has a profound effect on the weather, worldwide.
For, the past three years, it's been cooler than usual.
This is known as La Nina, and here in the US, La Nina leads to a much stronger northern branch of the jet stream.
That typically increases the likelihood of severe weather and tornadoes in the Midwest and the Great.
We saw this in action during the historic tornado outbreaks of 2021, where places like Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota saw record-breaking tornadoes.
But as we go farther into 2023.
The water in the Pacific Ocean is going to get warmer and warmer.
This means we're going to exit La, Nina and head towards what is known as El Nino, and usually El Nino amplifies the southern branch of the jet stream, and it increases the chances of severe weather in the south.
This giant Pacific bathtub ain't going to heat up overnight.
It's, going to take several months for these abnormally cool waters in the Pacific to reach above average status.
In fact, between February and June of this year, we're going to be in a transitional period, or a neutral phase somewhere between El Nino and La Nina.
What in the heck does this mean? In my opinion,? It means that slowly, but surely we're going to see that strong, northerly jet start to wind down and dip a little bit farther south.
This is probably going to lead to a lull or a late start and severe weather season for the Ohio Valley and East Coast.
Due to some lingering cold air and potential snowstorms.
And as the water in the Pacific Ocean keeps on heating.
Up, I think we're going to see increasing storm activity along the southern branch of the jet stream.
It won't be very frequent at first.
Essentially, things are going to be pretty sporadic.
I mean, it's going to be nuts out there.
There's, going to be a wild mixture of activity between the northern and southern jetstreams, leading to potential severe weather from the Deep South, all the way up into the Upper Midwest, not to mention the big temperature swings that are going to come along with this.
It's, going to get very cold out there, but also very hot.
I got to tell you.
This setup reminds me a lot of the year 2012.
We were exiting a La Nina pattern towards the beginning of the year, and we had reached a neutral phase throughout most of the spring and summer.
That's exactly what's happening.
Another similarity is that 2012 started off strong with 97 tornadoes in January, and in January of this year, we had 125, which was the third highest for January ever.
As we approached hurricane season in 2012, we started getting closer to El.
This resulted in a below average hurricane season, leading to less than 5% of the year's tornadoes being caused by tropical cyclones.
And from what I'm seeing, it looks like something similar is in store for 2023.
Overall, 2012 saw fewer tornadoes than average, with only 939 being confirmed over the course of the whole year.
I tend to think that the similarities between 2012 and this year are going to continue, and that will ultimately lead us to another below average year.
Somewhere between 900 and 1,100 tornadoes will have occurred by the end of 2023.
Simply by following the climatology, we can infer where the highest concentration of these tornadoes will occur as we go through the year.
As usual, we're going to see the Central Plains and Deep South light up in the spring.
Then the Northern Plains and Midwest in the summer.
And of course, we're going to see that southern migration as we go into fall and winter.
But because of that potential, late season, cold air hanging around the East Coast and the fact that we're heading towards an El Nino pattern by the end of summer, I think the Southern Plains are going to be the hot spot this year in terms of severe weather.
This is good news if you're someone in the Southeast who's, tired of being the center of attention on this channel, or if you're, a storm, chaser.
But, here's the thing.
All of this is very uncertain.
Despite your confidence in my forecasting, it's important.
You understand that this is still going to be a very dangerous year.
The total number of tornadoes during any given year has little to do with the impact tornadoes have on communities and individuals.
One of the most memorable tornado outbreaks of my lifetime happened in March of 2012, which is the very below average year that we keep referring.
Also, 2013 featured the least amount of tornadoes since 1989.
But guess: what? On, May 31, 2013, the biggest tornado ever happened in El Reno, Oklahoma.
And, just a few days before that, on May 20, one of the strongest tornadoes in recent memory struck, Moore, Oklahoma, producing EF-5 damage.
We haven't seen an EF-5 tornado since, despite having several years with many more tornadoes, touching down.
So, even though I think we're going to see less tornadoes than usual.
This year, we're still going to see tornado outbreaks.
They will bring about widespread damage and destruction.
Just think about it for a second.
If there was only one tornado for the rest of this year.
If that bad boy decided to come down your street, it's going to be a life-changing event for you.
But remember, don't be scared., Be, prepared.
You have storm anxiety or, if you just want to take the next step towards being prepared for this upcoming severe weather, season.
First of all, subscribe to this channel.
Second, get yourself a NOAA, Weather Radio.
You know how you have a smoke detector and a carbon monoxide detector.
In your house? Well, this is like a tornado or severe weather, detector.
Even when the power's out or the internet's out or you're trying to sleep.
This thing is going to wake you up.
If there's a tornado warning in your area.
It'll, even do flash flood and other severe weather warnings.
If you want it, to.
I always recommend these things, and I actually can't believe that they're not required to be a part of your house.
Just like a smoke detector or a carbon monoxide, detector.
But, good news, you can get one at Target or Walmart or Walgreens.
You can click the link in the description right now and get one from me.
That would be very cool of you.
And very soon it will arrive, and you will no longer be scared, but rather be prepared for this upcoming severe weather, season.
Thank you for watching my video.
Huge, shout out to my members.
And, of course.
Please subscribe to this channel, because, when severe weather strikes, we're going live here on this channel for 10, 12 hours, straight, whatever it takes.
So, make sure you're there for that.
The 2023 tornado season has been busy, with at least 995 preliminary reports of tornadoes and 827 tornadoes already confirmed in 2023 within the U.S. as of June 27. There were 128 in January, 56 in February, 189 confirmed in March, 146 in April, 125 in May, 170 in June and seven so far in July.Will 2023 have a EF5 tornado? ›
It's looking quite possible that the record EF5 “drought” will go past the 10-year mark. Upper-level winds are predicted to be on the weak side and/or displaced from unstable surface air through at least mid-May 2023, which should keep tornado activity at a relatively low ebb.Is the United States Tornado Alley shifting? ›
Data gathered in the past two years show that in addition to solo storms, large tornado outbreaks—multiple twisters spawned by a single weather system—are shifting even more definitively to the east. The swarms are clustering in a tighter geographical area than in the old Tornado Alley, too.Where is Tornado Alley shifting to? ›
But emerging research suggests Tornado Alley is creeping into new territories toward a region called Dixie Alley, which includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky.What are the predictions for Tornado Alley 2023? ›
AccuWeather predicts 1,055 to 1,200 twisters will touch down across the United States throughout 2023, slightly below the historical average of 1,225.What states are tornado alley 2023? ›
Tornado Alley states, including Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, are situated in the central part of the country, where warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cool, dry air from the Rockies. This collision creates an ideal environment for tornado formation.Can you survive an EF5 tornado without a basement? ›
“With an F5 tornado you get the 'house swept away – only foundation is left' situation – and the only *safe* place from an F5 is underground or out of it's path. These tornadoes are the ones that literally have pealed up the road where it passed.”Can any building survive an EF5 tornado? ›
Can a structure survive an EF-4 or 5 tornado without damage? The answer is an emphatic yes, if they are built as reinforced concrete shells. A disaster-resistant concrete shell must have an integral reinforced concrete roof, detailed as a diaphragm in order to maximize the potential strength of the shell structure.Can a EF5 tornado pick up a car? ›
Vehicle occupants are at particular risk as even relatively mild tornadoes can push or flip cars and trucks, while an F4- or F5-rated event can pick them up and toss them through the air, according to the National Weather Service (NWS.)What states do not get tornadoes? ›
- Rhode Island.
- Washington, D.C.
- Texas (155)
- Kansas (96)
- Florida (66)
- Oklahoma (62)
- Nebraska (57)
- Illinois (54)
- Colorado (53)
- Iowa (51)
The Tri-State tornado, which hit on March 18, 1925, was the deadliest tornado to ever occur in recorded history. The event lasted for over three hours and killed 695 people.What if you see a tornado not moving? ›
If the tornado appears to stay in the same place, growing larger or getting closer--but not moving either right or left--it is headed right at you. You must take shelter away from the car or get out of its way fast!Why are tornadoes increasing? ›
A warming planet creates favorable conditions for strong tornadoes to form. Simulations of the atmosphere indicate that, as global temperatures continue to rise, so do the chances that the "fundamental ingredients" for a severe thunderstorm will be present, Ashley said.What is the biggest tornado in history? ›
1. The Tri-State Tornado of March 25, 1925. The ”single” deadliest tornado in U.S. history was the famous Tri-State Tornado of March 25, 1925. At least695 people died in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana when a F5 mile-wide monster carved a course that was apparently 219 miles through the three states.How many tornadoes will there be in 2023? ›
There have been 1,041 preliminary filtered reported tornadoes, and 891 confirmed tornadoes in the United States in 2023. Worldwide, 95 tornado-related deaths have been confirmed, 74 of them in the United States, nine in Indonesia, eight in Myanmar, three in Turkey, and one in Saudi Arabia.Will there be an El Niño in 2023? ›
The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C).How many tornadoes in 2023 by state? ›
Fast Facts. As of 10 AM CDT on April 28th, 18 tornadoes had been documented for the April 19, 2023 severe weather and tornado outbreak. Survey teams had documented tornado damage across central Oklahoma on April 20-21, 2023, and had made preliminary EF Scale ratings for the 18 tornadoes.